Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

US imports Russian diesel by November 30?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 46¢ · $9K held · ends Dec 1

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

-$122.95

Smart Money Entry

35.5¢ → 45.5¢

+28% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares6,797

Combined PnL-$12.38

Yes4 traders

Total Value$938.81

Total Shares1,676

Combined PnL-$110.57

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

420h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaARB<$100	Noavg 25¢	$2.0K	$2.9K	+$835.73	53% 85-75 (160)
└ No leg	Noavg 25¢	$1.3K	$2.1K	+$996.47
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67.1¢	$931.09	$777.28	-$160.75
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 36¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$246.34	47% 476-535 (1011)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 48.8¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$104.66	18% 366-1654 (2020)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48.8¢	$666.17	$763.98	-$157.55
└ No leg	Noavg 37.1¢	$506.56	$559.34	+$52.89
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 45.6¢	$3.3K	$756.24	+$521.81	36% 16083-28096 (44179)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.6¢	$372.94	$453.76	+$217.03
└ No leg	Noavg 41¢	$278.43	$302.48	+$304.77
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 51.8¢	$518.08	$559.8	+$41.72	53% 6697-5893 (12590)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Noavg 55.8¢	$554.08	$551.37	-$2.71	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ No leg	Noavg 55.8¢	$473.25	$348.01	-$52.75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.2¢	$135.14	$203.36	+$50.04
TheKinginYellowCTR	Noavg 30.9¢	$268.2	$491.01	+$222.81	68% 830-398 (1228)
Optimus-	Yesavg 36.6¢	$290.01	$224.02	-$65.99	61% 1200-768 (1968)
SI singularitymanCTR	Noavg 37.9¢	$153.42	$166.05	+$26.81	42% 138-193 (331)
Car	Yesavg 85¢	$216.84	$144.43	-$72.41	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Noavg 56.1¢	$255.36	$78.02	-$43.86	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 20.5¢	$11	$39.21	+$28.21	18% 3833-17382 (21215)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 75.3¢	$43.58	$10.56	-$13.89	76% 11358-3527 (14885)

AnibalAugustoSardinhaARB<$100

Invested

$2,024.77

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$835.73

Record

53%

85-75 (160)

Both legs:

No$1,272.1625¢+$996.47

Yes$931.0967.1¢-$160.75

anoin123CTR

Invested

$2,266.36

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$246.34

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,661.53

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$104.66

Record

18%

366-1654 (2020)

Both legs:

Yes$666.1748.8¢-$157.55

No$506.5637.1¢+$52.89

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,340.2

Value

$756.24

PnL

+$521.81

Record

36%

16083-28096 (44179)

Both legs:

Yes$372.9445.6¢+$217.03

No$278.4341¢+$304.77

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$518.08

Value

$559.8

PnL

+$41.72

Record

53%

6697-5893 (12590)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Invested

$554.08

Value

$551.37

PnL

-$2.71

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

No$473.2555.8¢-$52.75

Yes$135.1437.2¢+$50.04

TheKinginYellowCTR

Invested

$268.2

Value

$491.01

PnL

+$222.81

Record

68%

830-398 (1228)

Optimus-

Yes

Invested

$290.01

Value

$224.02

PnL

-$65.99

Record

61%

1200-768 (1968)

singularitymanCTR

Invested

$153.42

Value

$166.05

PnL

+$26.81

Record

42%

138-193 (331)

Car

Yes

Invested

$216.84

Value

$144.43

PnL

-$72.41

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Invested

$255.36

Value

$78.02

PnL

-$43.86

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$39.21

PnL

+$28.21

Record

18%

3833-17382 (21215)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.58

Value

$10.56

PnL

-$13.89

Record

76%

11358-3527 (14885)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

420h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.