Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 85¢ · $10K held · ends Jan 2, 2027

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Sat, Jan 2, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$157.34

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 84.5¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares10,399

Combined PnL+$470.74

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares8,635

Combined PnL-$313.41

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

4399h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (9 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Udonsan	Noavg 80.5¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$138.66	79% 250-67 (317)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 79.1¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$162.81	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
AL alwaysOn	Noavg 81.5¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$51.38	77% 632-185 (817)
Barkshire-HathawayCTR	Yesavg 21.9¢	$407.57	$374.85	-$32.72	64% 1093-623 (1716)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 76.9¢	$263.91	$294.98	+$25.93	89% 4653-547 (5200)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 17.7¢	$298.74	$260.84	-$37.9	56% 973-770 (1743)
zxdfbdfgngcxvCTR	Yesavg 17.5¢	$256.68	$258.08	+$1.4	82% 1758-394 (2152)
TheGreekTraderPMCTR	Yesavg 21.9¢	$264.79	$181.2	-$77.55	60% 430-285 (715)
Gohst	Noavg 44¢	$88.95	$173.86	+$81.87	49% 738-770 (1508)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 81.5¢	$140.48	$144.95	+$4.48	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
smellyEllieCTR	Yesavg 29.4¢	$269.82	$137.84	-$127.39	50% 970-988 (1958)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Noavg 80¢	$100	$105.63	+$5.63	69% 156-69 (225)
PorxCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$72	$45	-$25.5	66% 1482-769 (2251)
Rex416CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$52.5	$37.5	-$13.75	57% 2537-1923 (4460)

Udonsan

Invested

$2,959.97

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$138.66

Record

79%

250-67 (317)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$2,415.9

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$162.81

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

alwaysOn

Invested

$2,492.87

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$51.38

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

Barkshire-HathawayCTR

Yes

Invested

$407.57

Value

$374.85

PnL

-$32.72

Record

64%

1093-623 (1716)

nonkenny90

Invested

$263.91

Value

$294.98

PnL

+$25.93

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$298.74

Value

$260.84

PnL

-$37.9

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

zxdfbdfgngcxvCTR

Yes

Invested

$256.68

Value

$258.08

PnL

+$1.4

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

TheGreekTraderPMCTR

Yes

Invested

$264.79

Value

$181.2

PnL

-$77.55

Record

60%

430-285 (715)

Gohst

Invested

$88.95

Value

$173.86

PnL

+$81.87

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

ghorrock

Invested

$140.48

Value

$144.95

PnL

+$4.48

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

smellyEllieCTR

Yes

Invested

$269.82

Value

$137.84

PnL

-$127.39

Record

50%

970-988 (1958)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Invested

$100

Value

$105.63

PnL

+$5.63

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

PorxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72

Value

$45

PnL

-$25.5

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

Rex416CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.5

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$13.75

Record

57%

2537-1923 (4460)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

4399h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (9 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.0%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.