Consensus PnL $65K · win rate 62% (318–199, n=517) · PM monthly #706 · holds 29 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$65.1K
Record
318W / 199L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 517 settled
Batting Avg
38.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1070
Source
PM monthly #706
Trades
542
Markets
664
Volume
$2.8M
Top consensus positions
29 in listed consensus markets · 23 of 29 on the consensus side (79%)- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $5.1K · now 70¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (76% of 95)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $3.5K · now 72¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $3.2K · now 78¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (66% of 30)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes $3.0K · now 42¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (50% of 46)
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?No $2.6K · now 89¢with the consensus (55% of 20)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.8K · now 71¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $1.6K · now 84¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes $1.6K · now 77¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (74% of 39)
Specialties
440 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 62¢- Elections
+3 pts
side won 69% of 64 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +8%
- Soccer
+2 pts
side won 38% of 50 · avg entry 36¢
ROI 0%
- Economy
+10 pts
side won 76% of 17 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 70% of 56 at an average 70¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 5% of 97)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 41% of 39)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 64% of 75)
- 70¢ and up: 52%(won 92% of 229)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.