Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 11 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (85%) · Yes at 1.9¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 85%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$3.4K

Smart Money Entry

1.1¢ → 1.9¢

+72% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares410,985

Combined PnL+$3.4K

No2 traders

Total Value$881.53

Total Shares899

Combined PnL+$12.11

Yes — 85%No — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

179 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 1¢	$2.4K	$4.6K	+$2.2K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
0X 0xdea296167f11b40d6e0195599dc92900363be981CTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$326.97	63% 17-10 (27)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$989.16	$989.16	+$593.34	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
RD rdba	Noavg 97.8¢	$487.34	$488.29	+$0.95	60% 131-88 (219)
ZP Zptml	Noavg 95.3¢	$401.06	$393.24	+$11.17	70% 32-14 (46)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$203.07	$359.99	+$157.65	54% 325-279 (604)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$154.2	$142.69	-$10.98	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$28.86	$87.87	+$59.01	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$72.36	+$47.6	26% 351-985 (1336)
GayPrideCTR<$100	Yes	$48.75	$48.75	+$29.22	49% 357-367 (724)
bosshogCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$49.98	$48.73	-$1.25	72% 1052-415 (1467)
AO aosdijfCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$22	$39	+$17	9% 48-464 (512)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$5.66	$5.66	+$3.39	7% 14-187 (201)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,355.75

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

0xdea296167f11b40d6e0195599dc92900363be981CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,071.9

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$326.97

Record

63%

17-10 (27)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$989.16

Value

$989.16

PnL

+$593.34

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

rdba

Invested

$487.34

Value

$488.29

PnL

+$0.95

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

Zptml

Invested

$401.06

Value

$393.24

PnL

+$11.17

Record

70%

32-14 (46)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR

Yes

Invested

$203.07

Value

$359.99

PnL

+$157.65

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$154.2

Value

$142.69

PnL

-$10.98

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.86

Value

$87.87

PnL

+$59.01

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$72.36

PnL

+$47.6

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

GayPrideCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.75

Value

$48.75

PnL

+$29.22

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

bosshogCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.98

Value

$48.73

PnL

-$1.25

Record

72%

1052-415 (1467)

aosdijfCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22

Value

$39

PnL

+$17

Record

48-464 (512)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.66

Value

$5.66

PnL

+$3.39

Record

14-187 (201)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

179 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.1%

1.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3163.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

3263.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.