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PolyConsensus
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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
00gringo000x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankNoha13
Record (consensus markets)no settled market58% (4527–3305, n=7832)45% (572–710, n=1282)53% (57–50, n=107)
Consensus PnL—$7.9M$7.9M$28K
Tracked as—PM monthly #14PM monthly #2PM monthly #797
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position71% (20 of 28 open)85% (28 of 33 open)100% (1 of 1 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NBA +9 pts n=459, ROI +5%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2301, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1407, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=98, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • Esports +5 pts n=62, ROI +11%
  • NBA +9 pts n=21, ROI +17%
  • MLB +7 pts n=12, ROI +3%
Weakest topic—NHL −1 pts, n=136——
Settled positions, side won—59% of 7119 at avg 55¢, ROI +1%97% of 582 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%53% of 105 at avg 48¢, ROI +10%
Entries under 30¢—17% (won 11% of 1182)10% (won 82% of 60)7% (won 29% of 7)
Entries 30–50¢—24% (won 45% of 1743)35% (won 98% of 204)38% (won 53% of 40)
Entries 50–70¢—29% (won 66% of 2080)35% (won 100% of 202)55% (won 57% of 58)
Entries 70¢ and up—30% (won 91% of 2114)20% (won 100% of 116)0%

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market00gringo000x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankNoha13
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $1.5KYes $53K—
Jaguars vs. Ravens
same side · consensus Jaguars
—Ravens $46KRavens $298K—
Spread: Jaguars (-9.5)
same side · consensus Ravens
—Ravens $30KRavens $192K—
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $45No $74K—
Spread: Jaguars (-8.5)
same side · consensus Ravens
—Ravens $16KRavens $287—
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus No
—No $4.5KNo $2.4K—