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PolyConsensus
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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankRN1uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9
Record (consensus markets)58% (4536–3323, n=7859)45% (576–717, n=1293)48% (14167–15642, n=29809)43% (103–138, n=241)
Consensus PnL$7.8M$7.9M$14.8M$31K
Tracked asPM monthly #19PM monthly #3PM monthly #30 + pinnedPM monthly #680
Sides with the consensus60% (15 of 25 open)88% (22 of 25 open)54% (14 of 26 open)0% (0 of 1 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=460, ROI +5%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2312, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1408, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=98, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=136——Soccer −3 pts, n=205
Settled positions, side won59% of 7133 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%97% of 582 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%94% of 25975 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%42% of 208 at avg 45¢, ROI +1%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1182)10% (won 82% of 60)10% (won 57% of 2593)47% (won 4% of 98)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1746)35% (won 98% of 204)22% (won 94% of 5682)12% (won 25% of 24)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2085)35% (won 100% of 202)35% (won 99% of 9181)5% (won 70% of 10)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2120)20% (won 100% of 116)33% (won 100% of 8519)37% (won 93% of 76)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankRN1uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Alexandra Eala
opposite sides · consensus Alexandra Eala
Antonia Ruzic $2.9K—Alexandra Eala $56K—
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.5KYes $37K——
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus Yes
No $45No $53K——
Chennai Open: Mai Hontama vs Magda Linette
same side · consensus Mai Hontama
Mai Hontama $911—Mai Hontama $19K—
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus No
No $4.5KNo $2.4K——