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PolyConsensus
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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465banepirBreakTheBankFlaznorp
Record (consensus markets)57% (4474–3357, n=7831)no settled market46% (560–667, n=1227)53% (5928–5310, n=11238)
Consensus PnL$8.9M—$9.4M$3.3M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #344—PM monthly #2PM monthly #17
Sides with the consensus63% (10 of 16 open)no open consensus position59% (13 of 22 open)63% (145 of 230 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
not computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +14 pts n=49, ROI +25%
  • NHL +9 pts n=57, ROI +13%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=134——Other Sports −13 pts, n=22
Settled positions, side won59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%—97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1482 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1183)—11% (won 80% of 61)29% (won 11% of 423)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1724)—35% (won 98% of 203)16% (won 40% of 243)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2055)—35% (won 100% of 201)17% (won 62% of 255)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2092)—20% (won 100% of 115)38% (won 94% of 561)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465banepirBreakTheBankFlaznorp
Will AEK win on 2026-11-04?
same side · consensus No
No $270K—No $651KNo $40K
Spread: Celtics (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Celtics
Celtics $436——Bucks $251
Will AEK vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?
same side · consensus No
No $267K——No $2.0K
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Over
Over $25K——Over $17K
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac
same side · consensus Arthur Fils
Arthur Fils $2.4K——Arthur Fils $5.6K
Spread: Celtics (-11.5)
same side · consensus Celtics
——Celtics $7.1KCeltics $215
AEK vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Under
Under $160——Under $2.5K
Pacers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5
same side · consensus Over
Under $248——Under $40