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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465blketBreakTheBankprimm
Record (consensus markets)58% (4535–3309, n=7844)no settled market45% (572–710, n=1282)50% (1105–1116, n=2221)
Consensus PnL$8.0M—$7.9M$3.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #14—PM monthly #2PM monthly #48
Sides with the consensus68% (17 of 25 open)no open consensus position80% (28 of 35 open)50% (9 of 18 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=459, ROI +5%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2301, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1407, ROI +4%
not computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=98, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=136———
Settled positions, side won59% of 7119 at avg 55¢, ROI +1%—97% of 582 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%99% of 1013 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1182)—10% (won 82% of 60)5% (won 94% of 51)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1743)—35% (won 98% of 204)41% (won 99% of 412)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2080)—35% (won 100% of 202)50% (won 99% of 503)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2114)—20% (won 100% of 116)5% (won 100% of 47)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465blketBreakTheBankprimm
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.5K—Yes $50K—
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Heat
Heat $266—Warriors $3.5K—
Spread: Jaguars (-9.5)
same side · consensus Ravens
Ravens $26K—Ravens $175K—
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus Yes
No $45—No $68K—
Heat vs. Warriors
same side · consensus Warriors
Warriors $18K—Warriors $821—
Spread: Jaguars (-8.5)
same side · consensus Ravens
Ravens $15K—Ravens $287—
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus No
No $4.5K—No $2.4K—
Spread: Jaguars (-5.5)
same side · consensus Ravens
——Ravens $1.3KRavens $560
Jaguars vs. Ravens: O/U 42.5
same side · consensus Under
——Over $821Over $33