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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BABELCONSTEL | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 82% (313–69, n=382) | 46% (560–665, n=1225) | 47% (13362–14874, n=28236) |
| Consensus PnL | -$551K | $11.2M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #311 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 33% (1 of 3 open) | 48% (10 of 21 open) | 64% (109 of 169 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −8 pts, n=15 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 90% of 723 at avg 80¢, ROI +9% | 97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 4% (won 3% of 29) | 10% (won 81% of 57) | 10% (won 57% of 2538) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 69% of 42) | 36% (won 98% of 201) | 22% (won 94% of 5565) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 14% (won 79% of 103) | 35% (won 99% of 196) | 36% (won 99% of 9017) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 76% (won 98% of 549) | 19% (won 100% of 109) | 33% (won 100% of 8250) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BABELCONSTEL | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $6.2K | No $482K | — |