Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankKaczkaRN1
Record (consensus markets)46% (560–666, n=1226)52% (427–397, n=824)47% (13363–14875, n=28238)
Consensus PnL$11.2M$15K$14.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #2was PM monthly #997PM monthly #24 + pinned
Sides with the consensus57% (12 of 21 open)80% (4 of 5 open)64% (127 of 198 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • Esports +28 pts n=415, ROI +23%
  • NBA +29 pts n=40, ROI +25%
  • Soccer +26 pts n=83, ROI +17%
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%84% of 546 at avg 56¢, ROI +22%94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢11% (won 80% of 61)5% (won 68% of 25)10% (won 57% of 2538)
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 98% of 203)22% (won 72% of 121)22% (won 94% of 5565)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 201)62% (won 88% of 340)36% (won 99% of 9017)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 115)11% (won 92% of 60)33% (won 100% of 8250)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankKaczkaRN1
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-04?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $55No $73
Will AEK win on 2026-11-04?
same side · consensus No
No $642K—No $6.5K
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-04?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $56KYes $44—