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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankjoseph00677S-Worksverifly
Record (consensus markets)41% (589–853, n=1442)43% (10–13, n=23)75% (2542–853, n=3395)34% (143–279, n=422)
Consensus PnL$7.7M$3.3M$3.8M-$339K
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #8PM monthly #54was PM monthly #874
Sides with the consensus83% (29 of 35 open)no open consensus position78% (7 of 9 open)33% (1 of 3 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • Esports +5 pts n=492, ROI +4%
  • MLB +4 pts n=308, ROI −2%
  • NBA +3 pts n=383, ROI +1%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic——Crypto −1 pts, n=46Esports −2 pts, n=408
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%75% of 2256 at avg 72¢, ROI +2%35% of 413 at avg 36¢, ROI −4%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)12% (won 0% of 2)6% (won 14% of 145)32% (won 21% of 131)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)6% (won 0% of 1)16% (won 48% of 367)55% (won 41% of 227)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)65% (won 73% of 11)23% (won 60% of 509)13% (won 43% of 54)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)18% (won 67% of 3)55% (won 96% of 1235)0% (won 0% of 1)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankjoseph00677S-Worksverifly
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 1 Winner
opposite sides · consensus T1
——Bilibili Gaming $744KT1 $35
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs
opposite sides · consensus Bilibili Gaming
——Bilibili Gaming $270KT1 $42K
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 3 Winner
opposite sides · consensus Bilibili Gaming
——Bilibili Gaming $153KT1 $43K