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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankmadar78primmweflyhigh
Record (consensus markets)41% (616–869, n=1485)67% (29–14, n=43)47% (1430–1597, n=3027)52% (414–381, n=795)
Consensus PnL$8.4M$18K$3.7M$2.9M
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #724PM monthly #41Hand-picked
Sides with the consensus88% (29 of 33 open)0% (0 of 1 open)no open consensus positionno open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • Soccer +19 pts n=32, ROI +31%
  • NHL +3 pts n=601, ROI +3%
  • NBA +11 pts n=45, ROI +13%
Weakest topic———Entertainment −21 pts, n=12
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%87% of 38 at avg 72¢, ROI +9%99% of 1269 at avg 51¢, ROI +50%55% of 745 at avg 51¢, ROI +6%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)8% (won 0% of 3)5% (won 95% of 59)3% (won 27% of 26)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)13% (won 100% of 5)40% (won 99% of 512)41% (won 50% of 302)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)13% (won 60% of 5)50% (won 100% of 633)51% (won 58% of 380)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)66% (won 100% of 25)5% (won 100% of 65)5% (won 89% of 37)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.