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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | RN1 | 00gringo00 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 54% (420–358, n=778) | 47% (13855–15340, n=29195) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | $97K | $13.4M | $3.5M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #979 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 58% (40 of 69 open) | 100% (4 of 4 open) | no open consensus position | 90% (146 of 163 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled | ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −2 pts, n=50 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 62% of 615 at avg 53¢, ROI +9% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 35% (won 10% of 213) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 0% | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 64% of 64) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 0% | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 11% (won 79% of 66) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 44% (won 98% of 272) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 0% | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Contentious-Dinnerdate | RN1 | 00gringo00 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $2.2K | — | — | No $28K |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $190 | — | — | Yes $83K |