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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | sainttroplay | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 54% (419–356, n=775) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 47% (13853–15337, n=29190) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | $98K | $4.4M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #979 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 60% (40 of 67 open) | no open consensus position | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 89% (141 of 159 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −2 pts, n=50 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 62% of 615 at avg 53¢, ROI +9% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 35% (won 10% of 213) | 0% | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 64% of 64) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 11% (won 79% of 66) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 44% (won 98% of 272) | 0% | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Contentious-Dinnerdate | sainttroplay | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $2.2K | — | — | No $32K |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $194 | — | — | Yes $83K |