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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| CustomTrader | BreakTheBank | joseph00677 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 7% (39–498, n=537) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 53% (10–9, n=19) | 47% (13871–15347, n=29218) |
| Consensus PnL | -$5.4K | $11.0M | $5.6M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #547 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 46% (6 of 13 open) | 87% (143 of 164 open) | no open consensus position | 57% (25 of 44 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Elections −7 pts, n=53 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 13% of 204 at avg 21¢, ROI −3% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 81% (won 7% of 165) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 11% (won 23% of 22) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 2% (won 0% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 6% (won 83% of 12) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | CustomTrader | BreakTheBank | joseph00677 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No | No $547 | Yes $48K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $499 | Yes $20K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $268 | Yes $13K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2 | Yes $9.3K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4 | Yes $5.0K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3 | Yes $2.1K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2 | Yes $2.1K | — | — |