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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| GonTanaka | BreakTheBank | RN1 | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 66% (160–84, n=244) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 47% (13854–15338, n=29192) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $14K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #163 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 80% (16 of 20 open) | 87% (130 of 149 open) | 75% (3 of 4 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Elections −14 pts, n=21 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 64% of 168 at avg 65¢, ROI +8% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 14% (won 9% of 23) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 9% (won 20% of 15) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 19% (won 56% of 32) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 58% (won 87% of 98) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | GonTanaka | BreakTheBank | RN1 | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $6 | No $32K | — | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $5 | Yes $30K | — | — |