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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Istaroth | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 28% (85–219, n=304) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 50% (1028–1027, n=2055) |
| Consensus PnL | -$706K | $10.6M | $4.4M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 73% (46 of 63 open) | 89% (141 of 159 open) | no open consensus position | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Crypto −4 pts, n=76 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 79% of 291 at avg 77¢, ROI −4% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 99% of 919 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 17% (won 12% of 49) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% | 5% (won 94% of 49) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 5% (won 60% of 15) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 42% (won 99% of 382) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 3% (won 63% of 8) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 49% (won 99% of 446) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 75% (won 95% of 219) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% | 5% (won 100% of 42) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Istaroth | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus No | Yes $28 | Yes $67K | — | — |