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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Istaroth | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 32% (79–171, n=250) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | -$706K | $4.4M | $10.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 74% (74 of 100 open) | no open consensus position | 73% (73 of 100 open) | 63% (20 of 32 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Crypto −4 pts, n=76 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 78% of 287 at avg 77¢, ROI −4% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 12% of 51) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 5% (won 54% of 13) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 2% (won 50% of 6) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 76% (won 95% of 217) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Istaroth | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | — | Magic $51K | Magic $228 |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | — | Magic $13K | Magic $161 |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus No | Yes $10 | — | Yes $41 | — |