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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Lilybaeum | RN1 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 57% (5630–4163, n=9793) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $995K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #251 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 17% (1 of 6 open) | 61% (28 of 46 open) | 73% (72 of 98 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 6070 at avg 63¢, ROI +35% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 7% (won 98% of 414) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 29% (won 100% of 1750) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 18% (won 100% of 1122) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 46% (won 100% of 2784) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Lilybaeum | RN1 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costa do Sauipe: Andre Souza vs Wilson Leite opposite sides · consensus Wilson Leite | Andre Souza $12 | Wilson Leite $12K | — | — |
| Charlottesville: Shunsuke Mitsui vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux opposite sides · consensus Shunsuke Mitsui | Geoffrey Blancaneaux $54 | Shunsuke Mitsui $5 | — | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | Magic $51K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | Magic $13K | — |
| Guayaquil: Joaquin Aguilar vs Hugo Dellien same side · consensus Joaquin Aguilar | Joaquin Aguilar $417 | Joaquin Aguilar $3.8K | — | — |