Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Joaquin Aguilar, while the market favors Hugo Dellien (56%). 12 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Guayaquil: Joaquin Aguilar vs Hugo Dellien

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Joaquin Aguilar (80%) · Joaquin Aguilar at 44¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 8

Joaquin Aguilar44¢Hugo Dellien56¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Joaquin Aguilar

Consensus Traders

Joaquin Aguilar 80%

Total Value

$18.2K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

36.3¢ → 43.5¢

+20% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralJoaquin Aguilar at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Joaquin Aguilar

12 of 15 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Hugo Dellien 56%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Joaquin Aguilar44%

Hugo Dellien56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Joaquin Aguilar12 traders

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares44,898

Combined PnL+$947.5

Hugo Dellien3 traders

Total Value$923.3

Total Shares1,532

Combined PnL+$64.72

Joaquin Aguilar — 80%Hugo Dellien — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Joaquin Aguilar. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJoaquin Aguilar 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJoaquin Aguilar 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJoaquin Aguilar 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Joaquin Aguilar 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Joaquin Aguilaravg 36¢	$9.5K	$10.3K	+$790.28	65% 1759-964 (2723)
RN1CTR	Joaquin Aguilaravg 35.5¢	$3.6K	$3.8K	+$200.05	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Joaquin Aguilaravg 39¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$125.84	38% 506-818 (1324)
UP UpTheBlues	Hugo Dellienavg 50.7¢	$822.53	$887.07	+$64.54	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Joaquin Aguilaravg 36¢	$1,000	$694.53	+$83.33	51% 3950-3850 (7800)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Joaquin Aguilaravg 35.8¢	$398	$416.52	+$18.52	61% 13796-8679 (22475)
1L 1lovejumpCTR	Joaquin Aguilaravg 51.3¢	$177.1	$144.8	-$28.1	53% 674-597 (1271)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Joaquin Aguilaravg 35.9¢	$87.64	$95.16	+$3.86	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Joaquin Aguilaravg 41¢	$20.5	$20.75	+$0.25	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
poshposh<$100	Hugo Dellienavg 54¢	$20.05	$19.68	-$0.37	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Hugo Dellienavg 53¢	$16	$16.55	+$0.55	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Joaquin Aguilaravg 43¢	$8.6	$8.3	-$0.3	51% 1532-1483 (3015)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Joaquin Aguilaravg 42.2¢	$3.13	$3.53	+$0.4	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Joaquin Aguilaravg 36¢	$1.8	$1.95	+$0.15	52% 7507-6801 (14308)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Joaquin Aguilaravg 38¢	$13.3	$0.74	+$4.9	56% 1868-1450 (3318)

darkumbreon88CTR

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$9,483.37

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$790.28

Record

65%

1759-964 (2723)

RN1CTR

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$3,553.7

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$200.05

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$1,963.16

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$125.84

Record

38%

506-818 (1324)

UpTheBlues

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$822.53

Value

$887.07

PnL

+$64.54

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$1,000

Value

$694.53

PnL

+$83.33

Record

51%

3950-3850 (7800)

LilybaeumCTR

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$398

Value

$416.52

PnL

+$18.52

Record

61%

13796-8679 (22475)

1lovejumpCTR

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$177.1

Value

$144.8

PnL

-$28.1

Record

53%

674-597 (1271)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$87.64

Value

$95.16

PnL

+$3.86

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$20.5

Value

$20.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

poshposh<$100

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$20.05

Value

$19.68

PnL

-$0.37

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$16

Value

$16.55

PnL

+$0.55

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$8.6

Value

$8.3

PnL

-$0.3

Record

51%

1532-1483 (3015)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$3.13

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$0.4

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.95

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$13.3

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$4.9

Record

56%

1868-1450 (3318)

Research grade

NeutralJoaquin Aguilar at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Joaquin Aguilar

12 of 15 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Hugo Dellien 56%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Joaquin Aguilar. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJoaquin Aguilar 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJoaquin Aguilar 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJoaquin Aguilar 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Joaquin Aguilar 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Joaquin Aguilar wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.