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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
NatoAlfistaBreakTheBankRN1
Record (consensus markets)50% (4078–4117, n=8195)45% (526–640, n=1166)48% (12823–13908, n=26731)
Consensus PnL$26K$10.6M$13.4M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #994PM monthly #1PM monthly #24 + pinned
Sides with the consensus60% (15 of 25 open)74% (71 of 96 open)64% (16 of 25 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won94% of 2419 at avg 46¢, ROI +43%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢11% (won 81% of 261)10% (won 85% of 53)10% (won 56% of 2534)
Entries 30–50¢48% (won 94% of 1153)36% (won 98% of 192)22% (won 94% of 5497)
Entries 50–70¢41% (won 97% of 993)35% (won 99% of 187)36% (won 99% of 8897)
Entries 70¢ and up0% (won 83% of 12)20% (won 100% of 107)31% (won 100% of 7736)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketNatoAlfistaBreakTheBankRN1
Chiefs vs. Broncos
opposite sides · consensus Chiefs
Broncos $89Chiefs $465K—
Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Chiefs
Broncos $120Chiefs $152K—
Spread: Steelers (-14.5)
opposite sides · consensus Browns
Browns $75—Steelers $9.1K
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Broncos
Broncos $58Chiefs $1.2K—