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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| NordhavenCap | RN1 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 59% (1964–1342, n=3306) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $312K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #206 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 83% (5 of 6 open) | 65% (13 of 20 open) | 85% (56 of 66 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 90% of 1418 at avg 63¢, ROI +25% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 15% (won 60% of 211) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 14% (won 91% of 203) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 21% (won 92% of 302) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 50% (won 98% of 702) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | NordhavenCap | RN1 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $65 | Commanders $82K | — |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $125 | Commanders $32K | — |
| Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-11-01? same side · consensus No | No $167 | No $146 | — | — |