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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| NotJump | RN1 | surfandturf | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 34% (3242–6177, n=9419) | 47% (13860–15343, n=29203) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 61% (495–320, n=815) |
| Consensus PnL | $436K | $13.4M | $4.1M | $4.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #963 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #326 | was PM monthly #51 |
| Sides with the consensus | 50% (11 of 22 open) | 83% (5 of 6 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | 43% (3 of 7 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | MLB −31 pts, n=51 | — | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | Soccer ±0 pts, n=115 |
| Settled positions, side won | 34% of 4267 at avg 45¢, ROI −9% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 38% (won 4% of 1603) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 15% (won 29% of 125) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 19% (won 20% of 790) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 34% (won 58% of 283) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 20% (won 43% of 856) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 43% (won 69% of 354) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 24% (won 86% of 1018) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 7% (won 80% of 60) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | NotJump | RN1 | surfandturf | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz opposite sides · consensus Lorenzo Musetti | Lorenzo Musetti $6.8K | Lorenzo Musetti $48K | — | Hubert Hurkacz $1.2K |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou Bergs opposite sides · consensus Ignacio Buse | Zizou Bergs $1 | Ignacio Buse $42K | — | — |
| Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | — | — | No $2.7K | Yes $6.4K |
| Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $142 | No $7.7K | — | — |
| Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana same side · consensus Mary Stoiana | Mary Stoiana $1.6K | Mary Stoiana $21K | — | — |
| Luanda: Isabella Shinikova vs Dune Vaissaud same side · consensus Isabella Shinikova | Dune Vaissaud $120 | Dune Vaissaud $273 | — | — |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Mariano Navone same side · consensus Mariano Navone | Mariano Navone $265 | Mariano Navone $3 | — | — |