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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| OraculumNobius | CORGII | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 90% (5343–569, n=5912) | 62% (393–246, n=639) | 45% (537–647, n=1184) | 48% (12899–14013, n=26912) |
| Consensus PnL | $3.6K | $4.5M | $10.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #68 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (9 of 9 open) | 33% (1 of 3 open) | 73% (78 of 107 open) | 67% (6 of 9 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
| ||
| Weakest topic | Weather ±0 pts, n=1407 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 98% of 4922 at avg 98¢, ROI 0% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 2% of 59) | 9% (won 92% of 36) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% (won 38% of 8) | 56% (won 99% of 223) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 0% (won 80% of 10) | 33% (won 100% of 133) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 98% (won 100% of 4845) | 2% (won 100% of 7) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | OraculumNobius | CORGII | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $4.7K | — | No $202K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.9K | — | Yes $1.4K | — |