← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| OraculumNobius | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 90% (5343–569, n=5912) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (535–643, n=1178) | 48% (12851–13947, n=26798) |
| Consensus PnL | $3.6K | $5.8M | $10.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (9 of 9 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 71% (82 of 116 open) | 63% (5 of 8 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
| ||
| Weakest topic | Weather ±0 pts, n=1407 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 98% of 4922 at avg 98¢, ROI 0% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 2% of 59) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% (won 38% of 8) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 0% (won 80% of 10) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 98% (won 100% of 4845) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | OraculumNobius | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $4.7K | — | No $184K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.9K | — | Yes $1.4K | — |