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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| OrwellFactory | BreakTheBank | RN1 | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 58% (336–242, n=578) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 47% (13853–15337, n=29190) | 50% (1028–1027, n=2055) |
| Consensus PnL | $1.4K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #991 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 33% (2 of 6 open) | 89% (141 of 159 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 60% of 559 at avg 58¢, ROI +2% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 99% of 919 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 12% (won 19% of 67) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 5% (won 94% of 49) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 23% (won 37% of 127) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 42% (won 99% of 382) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 32% (won 66% of 180) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 49% (won 99% of 446) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 33% (won 83% of 185) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 5% (won 100% of 42) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | OrwellFactory | BreakTheBank | RN1 | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $110 | No $202K | — | — |