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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| arjennnnn | 00gringo00 | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 66% (523–264, n=787) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 56% (101–79, n=180) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $75K | $3.5M | $3.5M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #372 + pinned | was PM monthly #19 | was PM monthly #373 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (1 of 1 open) | no open consensus position | no open consensus position | 73% (73 of 100 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled | |||
| Weakest topic | Tennis −20 pts, n=14 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 77% of 1157 at avg 76¢, ROI +2% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 15% (won 6% of 177) | 0% | 7% (won 75% of 8) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 24% of 34) | 0% | 26% (won 93% of 29) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 6% (won 65% of 74) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 42% (won 96% of 47) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 75% (won 94% of 872) | 0% | 24% (won 96% of 27) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | arjennnnn | 00gringo00 | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $409K | — | — | No $184K |