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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| elmcap2 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | CORGII | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 88% (1222–161, n=1383) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 62% (393–245, n=638) |
| Consensus PnL | $2.3M | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.5M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #87 + pinned | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #68 |
| Sides with the consensus | 99% (72 of 73 open) | 56% (35 of 62 open) | 73% (72 of 98 open) | 25% (1 of 4 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Politics −2 pts, n=247 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 90% of 1881 at avg 90¢, ROI +1% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 0% of 11) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 9% (won 92% of 36) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 33% of 81) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 56% (won 99% of 223) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 10% (won 61% of 179) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 33% (won 100% of 133) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 86% (won 97% of 1610) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 2% (won 100% of 7) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | elmcap2 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | CORGII |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $945K | — | No $184K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | Magic $51K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | Magic $13K | — |