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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| failstober | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 13% (95–632, n=727) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $296K | $10.6M | $4.4M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 86% (102 of 118 open) | 89% (141 of 159 open) | no open consensus position | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Mentions −1 pts, n=526 | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 17% of 839 at avg 16¢, ROI 0% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 74% (won 3% of 617) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 16% (won 46% of 134) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 65% of 62) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 3% (won 96% of 26) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | failstober | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $163 | Yes $14K | — | — |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.1K | — | — | Yes $4.2K |