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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| failstober | CORGII | 00gringo00 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 13% (95–632, n=727) | 62% (395–247, n=642) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | $296K | $4.5M | $3.5M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #68 | was PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 86% (102 of 118 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | no open consensus position | 89% (141 of 159 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled | ||
| Weakest topic | Mentions −1 pts, n=526 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 17% of 839 at avg 16¢, ROI 0% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 74% (won 3% of 617) | 9% (won 92% of 36) | 0% | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 16% (won 46% of 134) | 56% (won 99% of 223) | 0% | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 65% of 62) | 33% (won 100% of 133) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 3% (won 96% of 26) | 2% (won 100% of 7) | 0% | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | failstober | CORGII | 00gringo00 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $163 | — | — | Yes $14K |