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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
Add:BreakTheBankCORGIIsainttroplay00gringo000x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241primm
| failstober | RN1 | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 13% (95–631, n=726) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $297K | $13.4M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 87% (103 of 118 open) | 52% (56 of 108 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | Mentions −1 pts, n=526 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 17% of 839 at avg 16¢, ROI 0% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 74% (won 3% of 617) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 16% (won 46% of 134) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 65% of 62) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 3% (won 96% of 26) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | failstober | RN1 | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.1K | — | Yes $4.2K |