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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
ferdinand2RN1BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)50% (647–656, n=1303)47% (13860–15341, n=29201)45% (542–652, n=1194)
Consensus PnL$63K$13.4M$10.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #491PM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus63% (40 of 64 open)83% (5 of 6 open)89% (146 of 164 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +15 pts n=56, ROI +22%
  • NFL +7 pts n=14, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
Weakest topicSoccer −3 pts, n=419——
Settled positions, side won51% of 554 at avg 52¢, ROI +3%94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢24% (won 5% of 131)10% (won 57% of 2537)10% (won 82% of 56)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 39% of 132)22% (won 94% of 5518)36% (won 98% of 198)
Entries 50–70¢23% (won 64% of 130)36% (won 99% of 8928)35% (won 99% of 191)
Entries 70¢ and up29% (won 88% of 161)32% (won 100% of 7821)19% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketferdinand2RN1BreakTheBank
Bratislava 2: Lucas Poullain vs Yannik Kelm
opposite sides · consensus Lucas Poullain
Lucas Poullain $5Yannik Kelm $3—
Rolex Paris Masters: Luciano Darderi vs Rinky Hijikata
same side · consensus Rinky Hijikata
Rinky Hijikata $15Rinky Hijikata $34K—
Taipei: Joel Schwaerzler vs Jan Kumstat
same side · consensus Jan Kumstat
Jan Kumstat $8Jan Kumstat $9.7K—
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana
same side · consensus Mary Stoiana
Mary Stoiana $9Mary Stoiana $7.8K—
Bratislava 2: Michal Krajci vs Niels Visker
same side · consensus Michal Krajci
Michal Krajci $6Michal Krajci $270—