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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
justaluckydudeBreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)59% (5014–3415, n=8429)45% (526–640, n=1166)
Consensus PnL$1.4M$10.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #124PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus46% (45 of 97 open)72% (79 of 110 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic——
Settled positions, side won100% of 3467 at avg 60¢, ROI +40%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢4% (won 100% of 152)10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 100% of 833)36% (won 98% of 192)
Entries 50–70¢42% (won 100% of 1457)35% (won 99% of 187)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 100% of 1025)20% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketjustaluckydudeBreakTheBank
Ravens vs. Bills
opposite sides · consensus Bills
Ravens $210Bills $378K
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Ravens
Ravens $704Bills $51K
Spread: Jets (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Raiders
Jets $393Raiders $24K
Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers
Buccaneers $2.0KFalcons $8.6K
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
Cowboys $1.3KCardinals $3.0K
Spread: Jets (-1.5)
same side · consensus Raiders
Raiders $3.1KRaiders $104K
Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)
same side · consensus Cardinals
Cardinals $355Cardinals $35K
Celtics vs. Magic
same side · consensus Celtics
Magic $26Magic $24K
Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)
same side · consensus Jaguars
Jaguars $173Jaguars $20K
Spread: Raiders (-1.5)
same side · consensus Jets
Raiders $917Raiders $17K