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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| lava-lava | BreakTheBank | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 42% (355–490, n=845) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 61% (495–321, n=816) |
| Consensus PnL | $1.2M | $11.0M | -$352K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #80 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #51 |
| Sides with the consensus | 53% (51 of 96 open) | 87% (143 of 164 open) | 72% (13 of 18 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | Finance −15 pts, n=14 | — | Soccer ±0 pts, n=115 |
| Settled positions, side won | 40% of 843 at avg 38¢, ROI +2% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 48% (won 7% of 403) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 15% (won 29% of 125) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 16% (won 38% of 138) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 34% (won 58% of 283) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 15% (won 69% of 125) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 43% (won 69% of 354) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 21% (won 95% of 177) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 7% (won 80% of 60) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | lava-lava | BreakTheBank | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $3.1K | No $919K | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $5.3K | No $129 | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $2.6K | Yes $29K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $1.5K | No $25K | — |