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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| lug | RN1 | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 55% (1896–1560, n=3456) | 47% (13871–15347, n=29218) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) |
| Consensus PnL | $67K | $14.8M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #876 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #69 |
| Sides with the consensus | 68% (26 of 38 open) | 58% (26 of 45 open) | 68% (48 of 71 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | MLB −4 pts, n=166 | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 54% of 3622 at avg 53¢, ROI +1% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 15% of 357) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 33% (won 45% of 1182) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 20% (won 39% of 252) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 39% (won 56% of 1397) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 24% (won 57% of 306) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 84% of 686) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 43% (won 93% of 540) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | lug | RN1 | ndb1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $6.2K | — | No $99K |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $772 | — | No $53K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $507 | — | Yes $2.7M |