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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
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| ndb1 | RN1 | Venusian | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 63% (991–574, n=1565) | 47% (14184–15686, n=29870) | 49% (1188–1261, n=2449) |
| Consensus PnL | $3.2M | $14.8M | $21K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #92 | PM monthly #29 + pinned | PM monthly #472 |
| Sides with the consensus | 70% (52 of 74 open) | 43% (12 of 28 open) | 53% (8 of 15 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | NFL −9 pts, n=139 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 25975 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% | 100% of 618 at avg 72¢, ROI +30% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 13% (won 15% of 168) | 10% (won 57% of 2593) | 6% (won 100% of 38) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 39% of 256) | 22% (won 94% of 5682) | 16% (won 100% of 100) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 24% (won 58% of 314) | 35% (won 99% of 9181) | 19% (won 100% of 118) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 43% (won 93% of 550) | 33% (won 100% of 8519) | 59% (won 100% of 362) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | ndb1 | RN1 | Venusian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taipei: Yosuke Watanuki vs Alexandre Muller same side · consensus Yosuke Watanuki | — | Alexandre Muller $11 | Alexandre Muller $130 |