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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| notgoodluck | 00gringo00 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 63% (211–125, n=336) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | -$43K | $3.5M | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #685 | was PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 85% (17 of 20 open) | no open consensus position | 85% (53 of 62 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled | ||
| Weakest topic | Soccer −7 pts, n=94 | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 60% of 357 at avg 59¢, ROI −3% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 16% (won 14% of 56) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 36% of 72) | 0% | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 29% (won 62% of 103) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 35% (won 92% of 126) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | notgoodluck | 00gringo00 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $7.1K | — | No $34K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.6K | — | No $26K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3.5K | — | Yes $170K | — |