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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| notgoodluck | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 63% (211–125, n=336) | 48% (12984–14343, n=27327) | 45% (537–652, n=1189) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | -$42K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #685 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 85% (17 of 20 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | 85% (50 of 59 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Soccer −7 pts, n=94 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 60% of 357 at avg 59¢, ROI −3% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 16% (won 14% of 56) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 36% of 72) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 29% (won 62% of 103) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 35% (won 92% of 126) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | notgoodluck | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $7.3K | — | No $32K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.6K | — | No $26K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3.5K | — | Yes $170K | — |