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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| poptree | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 70% (290–124, n=414) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $332K | $10.6M | $5.8M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 83% (5 of 6 open) | 73% (73 of 100 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 70% of 438 at avg 62¢, ROI +4% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 26% (won 11% of 116) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 8% (won 49% of 35) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 85% of 41) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 56% (won 99% of 246) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | poptree | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $22K | No $35K | — | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $14K | Yes $37K | — | — |