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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| qwen300.fund | joseph00677 | BreakTheBank | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 39% (2599–4019, n=6618) | 50% (10–10, n=20) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 61% (495–320, n=815) |
| Consensus PnL | $239K | $5.3M | $10.6M | $4.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #51 |
| Sides with the consensus | 96% (137 of 142 open) | no open consensus position | 90% (146 of 163 open) | 57% (4 of 7 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Weather −3 pts, n=1468 | — | — | Soccer ±0 pts, n=115 |
| Settled positions, side won | 43% of 2980 at avg 45¢, ROI −1% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 57% (won 2% of 1695) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 15% (won 29% of 125) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 1% (won 46% of 35) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 34% (won 58% of 283) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 1% (won 70% of 27) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 43% (won 69% of 354) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 41% (won 98% of 1223) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 7% (won 80% of 60) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | qwen300.fund | joseph00677 | BreakTheBank | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $7 | — | Yes $22K | — |
| Will Republicans win Kansas and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3 | — | Yes $10K | — |
| Will Republicans win Maine and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2 | — | Yes $5.0K | — |
| Will Republicans win Maine and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2 | — | Yes $5.0K | — |