← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| stupid22 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 95% (306–15, n=321) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | -$106K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #268 + pinned | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 94% (31 of 33 open) | 52% (32 of 62 open) | 73% (72 of 98 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −7 pts, n=87 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 96% of 373 at avg 95¢, ROI −1% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 2% (won 50% of 6) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 1% (won 75% of 4) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 97% (won 97% of 363) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | stupid22 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | No $9.9K | — | Yes $1.1K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | Magic $51K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | Magic $13K | — |