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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| thebug44 | RN1 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 38% (55–90, n=145) | 48% (12930–14106, n=27036) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $185K | $13.4M | $4.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #989 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 84% (16 of 19 open) | 60% (6 of 10 open) | no open consensus position | 85% (52 of 61 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | NFL ±0 pts, n=14 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 45% of 101 at avg 35¢, ROI +12% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 49% (won 14% of 49) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 65% of 20) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 21% (won 76% of 21) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 11% (won 82% of 11) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | thebug44 | RN1 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $2.9K | — | — | No $34K |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $3.8K | — | Commanders $188K |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $9.6K | — | — | Yes $14K |
| Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $41 | — | — | Yes $15K |