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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| theta-thunberg | BreakTheBank | RN1 | 00gringo00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 51% (225–212, n=437) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 75% (6–2, n=8) |
| Consensus PnL | $53K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $3.5M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #19 |
| Sides with the consensus | 73% (8 of 11 open) | 73% (72 of 98 open) | 63% (29 of 46 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
|
| none with 10+ settled | |
| Weakest topic | Culture −23 pts, n=11 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 51% of 611 at avg 47¢, ROI +5% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 42% (won 10% of 257) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 35% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 0% |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 12% (won 74% of 73) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 100% (won 86% of 7) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 36% (won 95% of 219) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | theta-thunberg | BreakTheBank | RN1 | 00gringo00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $51K | Magic $228 | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $13K | Magic $161 | — |