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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| theta-thunberg | sainttroplay | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 51% (225–212, n=437) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 56% (101–79, n=180) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | $53K | $4.4M | $3.5M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #11 | was PM monthly #373 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 73% (8 of 11 open) | no open consensus position | no open consensus position | 57% (86 of 151 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Culture −23 pts, n=11 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 51% of 611 at avg 47¢, ROI +5% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 42% (won 10% of 257) | 0% | 7% (won 75% of 8) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 35% of 62) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 26% (won 93% of 29) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 12% (won 74% of 73) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 42% (won 96% of 47) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 36% (won 95% of 219) | 0% | 24% (won 96% of 27) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.