Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (67%). 14 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 34¢ · $9K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$-7.3K

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 33.5¢

-48% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 34%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares23,914

Combined PnL$-7.4K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,859

Combined PnL+$124.56

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 90% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PH phdcapitalCTR	Noavg 64.7¢	$4.6K	$2.4K	$-2.2K	94% 259-17 (276)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952CTR	Noavg 86.5¢	$2.5K	$982.84	$-1.6K	85% 605-108 (713)
LA Lasting-DessertCTR	Noavg 80.2¢	$2.2K	$906.22	$-1.3K	89% 563-67 (630)
DI Dimpled-Foal	Yesavg 56.9¢	$557.85	$704.4	+$146.55	54% 229-195 (424)
TR troimCTR	Noavg 46.3¢	$925.95	$670	-$255.95	36% 397-691 (1088)
XieGuangKunCTR	Noavg 74.8¢	$1.5K	$627.02	-$771.43	51% 367-349 (716)
MU muddyrc	Yesavg 69.3¢	$554	$532	-$22	51% 230-218 (448)
esports095CTR	Noavg 30.8¢	$390.88	$421.37	+$34.31	58% 651-467 (1118)
TO TokorCTR	Noavg 12.3¢	$135.75	$368.67	+$232.92	62% 795-490 (1285)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR	Noavg 81.9¢	$871.47	$356.63	-$514.83	63% 353-204 (557)
solwizzo-onXCTR	Noavg 74.8¢	$833.34	$346.1	-$487.24	67% 347-174 (521)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Noavg 65.7¢	$681.59	$343.96	-$332.69	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
zxdfbdfgngcxvCTR	Noavg 46¢	$460	$335	-$125	82% 1758-394 (2152)
AL Albert 1953CTR	Noavg 51.8¢	$387.65	$250.61	-$137.04	50% 1093-1094 (2187)
vacoolaaaCTR<$100	Noavg 82¢	$93.41	$38.16	-$55.25	68% 124-59 (183)
GonTanakaCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$5.22	$6.03	+$0.81	57% 173-128 (301)

phdcapitalCTR

Invested

$4,557.75

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

94%

259-17 (276)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952CTR

Invested

$2,538.14

Value

$982.84

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

Lasting-DessertCTR

Invested

$2,169

Value

$906.22

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

89%

563-67 (630)

Dimpled-Foal

Yes

Invested

$557.85

Value

$704.4

PnL

+$146.55

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

troimCTR

Invested

$925.95

Value

$670

PnL

-$255.95

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

XieGuangKunCTR

Invested

$1,509.65

Value

$627.02

PnL

-$771.43

Record

51%

367-349 (716)

muddyrc

Yes

Invested

$554

Value

$532

PnL

-$22

Record

51%

230-218 (448)

esports095CTR

Invested

$390.88

Value

$421.37

PnL

+$34.31

Record

58%

651-467 (1118)

TokorCTR

Invested

$135.75

Value

$368.67

PnL

+$232.92

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR

Invested

$871.47

Value

$356.63

PnL

-$514.83

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

solwizzo-onXCTR

Invested

$833.34

Value

$346.1

PnL

-$487.24

Record

67%

347-174 (521)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Invested

$681.59

Value

$343.96

PnL

-$332.69

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

zxdfbdfgngcxvCTR

Invested

$460

Value

$335

PnL

-$125

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

Albert 1953CTR

Invested

$387.65

Value

$250.61

PnL

-$137.04

Record

50%

1093-1094 (2187)

vacoolaaaCTR<$100

Invested

$93.41

Value

$38.16

PnL

-$55.25

Record

68%

124-59 (183)

GonTanakaCTR<$100

Invested

$5.22

Value

$6.03

PnL

+$0.81

Record

57%

173-128 (301)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 34%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 90% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$177.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

277.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.