Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?

15 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 97¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 4

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$23.3K

Combined PnL

$403.26

Smart Money Entry

93.5¢ → 96.9¢

+4% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 21 top traders (71%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes15 traders

Total Value$22.9K

Total Shares23,602

Combined PnL+$774.96

No6 traders

Total Value$492.56

Total Shares15,393

Combined PnL-$371.7

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

729h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 90% · 10

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 85% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Yesavg 93.5¢	$15.0K	$14.5K	+$495.07	89% 1665-205 (1870)
studmuffin6969	Yesavg 95.5¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$39.01	59% 1027-717 (1744)
scottilicious	Yesavg 92.4¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$121.13	82% 945-201 (1146)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 95.1¢	$513.17	$514.77	+$8.89	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
probability	Yesavg 92.5¢	$405.42	$424.85	+$18.99	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
IM immanuelcan	Yesavg 91¢	$8.04	$390.04	+$25.61	53% 906-789 (1695)
AV aviato	Yesavg 94.3¢	$355.07	$364.86	+$9.41	84% 2440-449 (2889)
Ryxon21	Yesavg 92.5¢	$336.03	$352.18	+$17.6	71% 318-130 (448)
bernardbulletinCTR	Noavg 5.9¢	$464.26	$241.5	-$222.76	69% 987-450 (1437)
IN insidero	Yesavg 93.4¢	$231.32	$239.99	+$9.29	76% 291-93 (384)
TH TheFOMCGambler	Yesavg 90.3¢	$93.45	$148.73	+$10.09	76% 102-32 (134)
CO cowcat	Yesavg 86.6¢	$113.8	$127.91	+$14.11	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
paddaaCTR	Noavg 5.5¢	$200	$116.36	-$83.63	56% 836-644 (1480)
HO HotDogs<$100	Yesavg 94.5¢	$94.98	$97.39	+$2.31	94% 442-28 (470)
Talophex<$100	Yesavg 94.2¢	$94.2	$96.9	+$2.6	91% 929-95 (1024)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Noavg 4.7¢	$118.87	$80.13	-$47.46	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 3.2¢	$7.86	$24.95	-$2.77	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
Chungvicular<$100	Yesavg 93.1¢	$17.41	$18.12	+$0.69	46% 49-57 (106)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Noavg 7.4¢	$37.32	$16.18	-$20.96	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$7.56	$13.44	+$5.88	54% 8322-7007 (15329)
DEGENKHAN<$100	Yesavg 95.7¢	$9.57	$9.69	+$0.15	66% 1107-565 (1672)

elmcap2

Yes

Invested

$14,999.99

Value

$14.5K

PnL

+$495.07

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

studmuffin6969

Yes

Invested

$2,865

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$39.01

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

scottilicious

Yes

Invested

$2,519.42

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$121.13

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$513.17

Value

$514.77

PnL

+$8.89

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

probability

Yes

Invested

$405.42

Value

$424.85

PnL

+$18.99

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

immanuelcan

Yes

Invested

$8.04

Value

$390.04

PnL

+$25.61

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

aviato

Yes

Invested

$355.07

Value

$364.86

PnL

+$9.41

Record

84%

2440-449 (2889)

Ryxon21

Yes

Invested

$336.03

Value

$352.18

PnL

+$17.6

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

bernardbulletinCTR

Invested

$464.26

Value

$241.5

PnL

-$222.76

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

insidero

Yes

Invested

$231.32

Value

$239.99

PnL

+$9.29

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

TheFOMCGambler

Yes

Invested

$93.45

Value

$148.73

PnL

+$10.09

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$113.8

Value

$127.91

PnL

+$14.11

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

paddaaCTR

Invested

$200

Value

$116.36

PnL

-$83.63

Record

56%

836-644 (1480)

HotDogs<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.98

Value

$97.39

PnL

+$2.31

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

Talophex<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.2

Value

$96.9

PnL

+$2.6

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Invested

$118.87

Value

$80.13

PnL

-$47.46

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$7.86

Value

$24.95

PnL

-$2.77

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

Chungvicular<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.41

Value

$18.12

PnL

+$0.69

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Invested

$37.32

Value

$16.18

PnL

-$20.96

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

sfkjbsr457CTR<$100

Invested

$7.56

Value

$13.44

PnL

+$5.88

Record

54%

8322-7007 (15329)

DEGENKHAN<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.57

Value

$9.69

PnL

+$0.15

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 21 top traders (71%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

729h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 90% · 10

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 85% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.