Consensus PnL $140K · win rate 76% (842–261, n=1103) · hand-picked wallet · holds 17 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$140.2K
Record
842W / 261L
Win Rate
76.0%
of 1103 settled
Batting Avg
68.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#538
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
58,559
Markets
1,732
Volume
$2.7M
Top consensus positions
17 in listed consensus markets · 17 of 17 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $17K · now 84¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $5.4K · now 71¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $5.4K · now 70¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $3.3K · now 72¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $2.7K · now 71¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (86% of 51)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.1K · now 74¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (68% of 45)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $2.0K · now 65¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes $1.3K · now 36¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (79% of 29)
Specialties
1,327 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 56¢- Mentions
+11 pts
side won 63% of 163 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +10%
- Politics
+10 pts
side won 66% of 169 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +6%
- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 62% of 521 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Finance — held side won 42% of 24 at an average 44¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 23%(won 16% of 300)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 42% of 204)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 73% of 337)
- 70¢ and up: 37%(won 94% of 486)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.