Consensus PnL $69K · win rate 79% (103–27, n=130) · hand-picked wallet · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$68.7K
Record
103W / 27L
Win Rate
79.0%
of 130 settled
Batting Avg
70.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#473
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
10,194
Markets
343
Volume
$2.4M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 6 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?No $63K · now 97¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No $39K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (94% of 31)
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No $4.7K · now 94¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No $2.1K · now 96¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (66% of 33)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $480 · now 96¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $420 · now 84¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
Specialties
298 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 82¢- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 91% of 193 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +3%
- Finance
+4 pts
side won 85% of 34 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +4%
- Politics
+11 pts
side won 87% of 15 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 58% of 19 at an average 72¢ entry (−14 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 11% of 28)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 50% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 60% of 20)
- 70¢ and up: 81%(won 95% of 242)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.