Consensus PnL -$537K · win rate 30% (1289–2987, n=4276) · holds 25 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-536.6K
Record
1289W / 2987L
Win Rate
30.0%
of 4276 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2636
Trades
2,560
Markets
4,921
Volume
$3.8M
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Top consensus positions
25 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 25 on the consensus side (64%)- Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?Yes $210 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $161 · now 3¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (95% of 20)
- Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?Yes $112 · now 79¢ · in at 70¢against the consensus (No)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $98 · now 99¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (78% of 190)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $82 · now 31¢against the consensus (No)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes $61 · now 0¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $50 · now 48¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (73% of 65)
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $48 · now 28¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (80% of 54)
Specialties
2,616 settled consensus markets · held side won 32% at an average entry of 33¢- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 16% of 93 · avg entry 13¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 9% of 186 at an average 11¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 56%(won 6% of 1461)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 38% of 277)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 58% of 396)
- 70¢ and up: 18%(won 86% of 482)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.