Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (85%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 15¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 20, 2029

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Sat, Jan 20, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$400.81

Smart Money Entry

15.3¢ → 15¢

-2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 85%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares7,413

Combined PnL+$400.81

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

4935h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GohstCTR	Noavg 13.9¢	$494.04	$762.3	+$268.26	49% 742-773 (1515)
NadmiCTR	Noavg 4¢	$41.03	$153.88	+$112.84	47% 2049-2315 (4364)
2B9SCTR	Noavg 17¢	$102	$129	+$27	18% 4223-19901 (24124)
LornaPredictsCTR	Noavg 7¢	$56	$120	+$64	20% 2521-10003 (12524)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Noavg 20¢	$46.6	$100.73	-$16.37	56% 18157-14054 (32211)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 30.9¢	$349.94	$59.94	+$48.29	35% 17606-32935 (50541)
M2 M2sx92kljs42CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$76	$43	-$33	73% 350-132 (482)
TT tttt123CTR<$100	Noavg 45.4¢	$90.8	$43	-$47.8	72% 1537-588 (2125)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100	Noavg 31.3¢	$46.06	$31.67	-$14.39	73% 2967-1078 (4045)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$14.4	$5.46	-$7.1	41% 4499-6366 (10865)
Donny.TCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$2.8	$0.22	-$0.93	72% 488-190 (678)

GohstCTR

Invested

$494.04

Value

$762.3

PnL

+$268.26

Record

49%

742-773 (1515)

NadmiCTR

Invested

$41.03

Value

$153.88

PnL

+$112.84

Record

47%

2049-2315 (4364)

2B9SCTR

Invested

$102

Value

$129

PnL

+$27

Record

18%

4223-19901 (24124)

LornaPredictsCTR

Invested

$56

Value

$120

PnL

+$64

Record

20%

2521-10003 (12524)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Invested

$46.6

Value

$100.73

PnL

-$16.37

Record

56%

18157-14054 (32211)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$349.94

Value

$59.94

PnL

+$48.29

Record

35%

17606-32935 (50541)

M2sx92kljs42CTR<$100

Invested

$76

Value

$43

PnL

-$33

Record

73%

350-132 (482)

tttt123CTR<$100

Invested

$90.8

Value

$43

PnL

-$47.8

Record

72%

1537-588 (2125)

Tenebrus7CTR<$100

Invested

$46.06

Value

$31.67

PnL

-$14.39

Record

73%

2967-1078 (4045)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$5.46

PnL

-$7.1

Record

41%

4499-6366 (10865)

Donny.TCTR<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.93

Record

72%

488-190 (678)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 85%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

4935h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.5%

15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$504.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

604.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.